A UK minister appeared to “row back” on a commitment to devolve powers over probation and youth justice to Wales, with Westminster set to retain responsibility.

In 2019, an independent commission – led by Lord Thomas, the former head of the judiciary – recommended that justice policy should be “determined and delivered” in Wales.

But, nearly six years on, devolution has stalled, with Welsh and UK ministers suggesting a phased and piecemeal approach to transferring powers as happened in Greater Manchester.

In November, a report set out three options for devolution: transfer of executive powers, full law-making and executive responsibilities, or an agreement on commissioning services.

And, giving evidence to the Senedd equality and social justice committee today, ministers implied the Welsh and UK Governments will pursue the co-commissioning model.

Lord Timpson, the UK prisons and probation minister, intimated that devolution would not be a priority amid “massive pressures” on the justice system.

Mick Antoniw, the former counsel general or chief legal adviser to the Welsh Government, pointed to “volumes of evidence” that devolution of probation “needs to happen and quickly”.

Lord Timpson said colleagues have had a meeting on local delivery options for youth justice.

He told the committee UK ministers would look at the Greater Manchester model but he cautioned of “huge” pressures and a need for stability.

“If we lurch from problem to problem, we are just going to put sticking plasters all over everything,” he said, advocating “sensible, sustainable and evidence-led” policy instead.

Lord Timpson stated he was more concerned about challenges in probation than prisons – warning the service is unstable, with probation officers having an average caseload of 35.

Mr Antoniw pressed his Labour colleague about the need to transfer powers over probation, given that many of the levers for keeping people out of prison are devolved.

“It seems to me there’s no logical response to that other than we’ve had a decade of delay on actually looking at the enormous accumulation of evidence,” he said.

“What you seem to be suggesting is that we’re going to go through that process of just continually looking at the evidence without ever really coming to a proper conclusion.”

Lord Timpson – who was chief executive of retailer Timpson until 2024 – warned probation remained “bruised” from previous reforms.

“We need to be in a much more stable position before we can start talking about further changes,” he said, referring to the Conservatives’ “transforming rehabilitation” programme.

Pressed by Adam Price, the former MP and ex-Plaid Cymru leader, Lord Timpson suggested devolution will not be a priority until “massive pressures” stabilise.

Mr Price pointed out that powers over budgets and making laws would remain at Westminster under a co-commissioning model similar to Manchester’s.

He asked: “Are you saying that… the full devolution of executive and legislative powers, that’s not something that is on your agenda?”

Lord Timpson said: “I’m not ruling anything out, I’m not ruling anything in.

“What I’m focused on is trying to sort out the crisis in our justice system.”