More than 600 pupils could disappear from Ceredigion's primary classrooms by the end of the decade, raising fresh questions over the future of rural schools despite the county's comparatively healthy financial position.

Figures in Ceredigion County Council's latest Medium-Term Financial Strategy show primary pupil numbers falling from 4,476 in 2023/24 to 4,249 in 2025/26.

They are forecast to decline further to 3,869 by 2029/30, a loss of 607 pupils from the earlier figure.

Secondary school enrolment is expected to remain relatively stable, falling from 4,265 to 4,126 over the same period.

Including additional learning needs units, the total school population is forecast to fall from 8,845 to 8,101.

The report warns that the existing education infrastructure is unlikely to remain financially viable in the medium to long term because of sustained falls in pupil numbers, particularly at primary level.

Smaller schools face particular difficulties because declining enrolment reduces funding without necessarily producing equivalent reductions in the costs of maintaining buildings, staffing classrooms and providing essential services.

The council also warns that changes in pupil numbers can affect its share of Welsh Government funding, potentially compounding the financial pressure.

However, the figures paint a considerably more positive picture of schools' immediate financial health.

Just two of Ceredigion's 41 schools ended the 2025/26 financial year in deficit, with their combined shortfall standing at £36,000, equivalent to £18,000 per affected school.

The council compares this with a wider Welsh picture in which 34 percent of schools were in deficit, averaging £218,000 each, with a combined shortfall of £108 million.

Ceredigion is reported to have the lowest average school deficit in Wales, while none of its schools is currently in a statutory follow-up category.

Nevertheless, the authority stresses that balancing school budgets becomes increasingly difficult as running costs rise.

In 2023, the council adopted principles aimed at maintaining a sustainable education network, with declining pupil numbers now reinforcing the challenges facing that approach.

The authority is also examining how to sustain post-16 education, with work continuing on a possible centre of excellence alongside efforts to improve joint planning across existing sites.

Its longer-term school investment programme includes proposals for Aberaeron, Rhydypennau and Penparc primary schools, alongside a new Catholic school at St Padarn's.

Funding for the later stages of that programme has yet to be earmarked. Council match funding has already been set aside for the initial projects at Llwyn yr Eos and Ceredigion's pupil referral unit.

Approximately 72 percent of Ceredigion learners are taught Welsh as a first language, adding another important consideration to how education is organised across the county's scattered rural communities.

The financial strategy is being considered by councillors on Thursday, 22 October, as part of discussions about the authority's financial outlook through to 2031/32.

Although the document does not propose closing any named school, its projections underline the difficult decisions potentially facing the county as pupil numbers continue to decline.