Cancer cases in Wales will rise by around 24,000 in the next 10 years, new modelling from Public Health Wales projects.

The projected rise - an increase of 11 per cent from current levels - is largely down to the ageing population in Wales, as cancer is more common in older people, a new report Cancer in Wales – trends and projections, outlines.

In the 20 years between 2005 and 2025, the number of people aged 65 and over in Wales is estimated to have increased by 186,000 and is projected to grow by another 135,000 in the next decade.

Cancer accounts for around one in four deaths of people in Wales, with 9,123 deaths in Wales recorded as being caused by cancer in 2024.

Although the likelihood of surviving for more than five years after a cancer diagnosis has been increasing, the total number of new cases has gone up – meaning that there are now 10 per cent more deaths from cancer in Wales than in 2002.

Just over half the number of cases of cancer are made of the four most common types – prostate, breast, lung and colorectal (bowel) cancers.

Public Health Wales has projected in the report that by 2035 there will be more cases of prostate cancer, breast cancer and bowel cancer each year.

Because of challenges capturing the impact of changing patterns of smoking and the potential impact of the targeted national screening programme – to be introduced in 2027 - it was not possible to project the numbers of lung cancer cases.

The report also says that the deprivation gaps in cancer diagnosis and survival show no signs of closing.

After adjusting for different age distributions, the incidence of cancer is a fifth higher in the most deprived areas compared to the least deprived.

Dr Llion Davies, Consultant in Public Health Medicine for Public Health Wales, said: “As the number of people in older age groups in the Welsh population increases, we predict that more people will be diagnosed with cancer, as becoming older is one of the main drivers of cancer incidence.

“Cancer prevention and early diagnosis activity includes Public Health Wales’s existing and planned screening programmes - which are designed to identify cancers at an early, more treatable stage - and the free Help Me Quit smoking cessation service.

“The Bowel Screening Wales and Cervical Screening Wales programmes also prevent cancer, as does the HPV vaccination programme.

“It is clear from established evidence that investing in effective cancer prevention and early diagnosis should be a priority - given the existing inequalities and the projected increase in cases in the coming years.

“Inequalities remain stark.

“In too many parts of Wales, the building blocks of health and wellbeing - such as healthy homes, good jobs, enough money to pay bills, connections with people in our communities, education and skills, and safe and clean environments - are not strong enough or are missing altogether.

“This leads to poorer health and lives being cut short, creating or worsening health inequalities.”