Concerns have been raised over startling figures from a health board that predict a growing depopulation crisis in rural Wales.

Hywel Dda University Health Board's latest projections show that by 2040, the population aged 16–64 across Ceredigion, Carmarthenshire and Pembrokeshire is expected to fall by 15,300, with the steepest decline in Ceredigion, where the working-age population is projected to shrink by 15.1%.

Over the same period, the proportion of residents aged over 65 is expected to rise from 27% to nearly 32%, with Pembrokeshire forecast to reach 34%.

The Welsh Liberal Democrats say these figures highlight a growing demographic imbalance in West Wales, with fewer young people and working-age adults able to live, work and raise families locally.

They warn that this trend threatens the long-term sustainability of public services, local economies, and Welsh-speaking communities, particularly in areas such as Ceredigion and north Pembrokeshire.

The party argues that communities in West and rural Wales are being left behind by a Cardiff-centric approach to public spending by Welsh Labour, with disproportionate investment flowing to the capital and its commuter belt while rural and Welsh-speaking areas struggle to retain young people and working families.

The Welsh Liberal Democrats say this decline is not inevitable and can be reversed through targeted investment in genuinely affordable housing, rural transport, healthcare access and well-paid local jobs.

Sandra Jervis, Welsh Liberal Democrat Senedd Candidate for Ceredigion Penfro, said: “These are deeply sobering figures and they should be a wake-up call for the Welsh Government. Depopulation in West Wales is not a future risk; it is happening now, and it is accelerating.

“Young people are being priced out of their own communities, unable to find secure work or affordable homes, and left with little choice but to leave.

“West Wales needs urgent action on housing, transport, healthcare and well-paid local jobs, not warm words.”