Ceredigion’s ageing population is a ‘key challenge’ that is a ‘ticking time bomb’ towards a crisis in healthcare.

The county’s population of people aged over 65 is projected to increase from around a quarter to a third in under two decades, according to a report that went before Ceredigion County Council earlier this month.

By 2040 Ceredigion’s population of over-85s is set to grow a staggering 70 per cent according to Welsh Government data.

The draft report looks at a potential dementia crisis, an influx of unpaid carers and an increasingly excessive strain on hospitals and care suppliers.

Dementia cases in Ceredigion are expected to be up nearly 40 per cent in less than 20 years, with the west Wales area seeing a similar rise.

There could be 4,200 dementia patients in the wider region by 2040 - equivalent to the population of Cardigan - with 863 of these in Ceredigion.

The West Wales Care Partnership’s draft Population Needs Assessment report states: “The increase in the older population will be a key challenge.

“Dementia is a condition that cuts across system wide services and is therefore everybody’s business.

“It is important to recognise that dementia services need to be embedded in the whole system of provision.

“West Wales has the highest proportion of people over the age of 85 in Wales, due in part to inward migration, the popularity of West Wales as a retirement destination, and the outward migration of young people unable to find employment in their own communities.

“As the incidence of dementia is strongly linked with age, it is therefore very likely that we will see an increase in the number of people living with dementia.”

The number of cases in the Hywel Dda region has already increased from around 2,500 in 2016 to nearly 3,000 in 2020. Despite this, the region has one of the lowest dementia diagnosis rates in Wales.

With the added strain of agedness, including dementia, the number of unpaid carers is expected to increase significantly, the draft report adds.

It says Ceredigion Carers Unit reported the number increased by 267 from 825 to 1,092 – a rise of around 20 per cent – in 2020/21 alone.

The report states: “The Social Services and Well Being (Wales) Act 2014 defines an unpaid carer as a person, of any age, who provides or intends to provide care for an adult or child.

“Unpaid carers are the single largest provider of care to people with support needs in our communities, saving the NHS and Social Services millions of pounds a year.”

Liberal Democrat Ex-Ceredigion MP and chair of the North Ceredigion Old People’s Forum, Mark Williams, told the Cambrian News: “This report makes chilling reading and illustrates the ticking time bomb of inadequate social care provision in this county and more generally.

“We need to cater for all the needs of the growing number of dementia cases - adequately staffed and more readily accessible care packages in the home; meaningful respite and support packages for the massive and growing numbers of unpaid carers; and sufficient residential nursing beds.

“Our Forum has been told of the ease with which NHS nursing beds can be commissioned in the private sector, and yet we know that those same beds are under a huge demand.

“You can’t take from Peter to pay for Paul indefinitely.”