Madam,

When the Ceredigion County Council Cabinet decided to close Bodlondeb it was well known that the commissioned domiciliary carer market was fragile.

A review entitled Above and Beyond (published October 2016) by Care and Social Services Inspectorate Wales reported that to be the case, and drew attention to the adverse impact of service unreliability on patients and their informal carers (family, friends and neighbours).

Dire shortages of both commissioned carers and informal carers had been forecast as long ago as 2010 and 2011 caused by an increase in demand of some 60 per cent by 2030.

It is impossible to believe that the director of social services, the council Cabinet or the responsible minister in the Welsh Government was unaware of these findings.

The push towards more care at home was well established and it can only be concluded that they were and still are prepared to wilfully ignore the research and further run down the facilities available to the most vulnerable in our communities.

The West Wales Care Partnership, when outlining the demand on services, quotes the clinical wisdom that 25 per cent of people over the age of 85 are very likely to be so frail that they may experience sudden deterioration in physical or mental health.

The 2011 census in Wales (used as the base data) in the assessment, totals all carers over 65 as one group. However by applying the demographic percentages within the carer population from the more refined census in England (which will be very similar to those in Wales) to the total carer population in Ceredigion at the time of the census we can be confident that at least 757 are over 85 years old and the WWCP Assessment indicates around 189 of those are likely to suffer sudden ill-health.

It should be borne in mind that the 25 per cent referred to in the assessment relates to the the general population and that the pressure associated with caring is likely to increase the incidence of sudden deterioration among carers.

It is truly extraordinary that the West Wales Care Partnership does not appear to have recognised this risk or the extra demand it will generate for domiciliary care and in all probability residential and nursing care.

It is unlikely that the research undertaken in 2010 and 2011 took into account the rapid closure of care homes, seen more recently, or the increasing levels of care at home brought about by plans to move hospital services into the community, both of which add to the problem.

I feel it is a national disgrace to rely on what are, in practical terms, over 80-year-old, unpaid, health care support workers (who are trying to cope with domestic chores as well!), with many caring in excess of 50 hours a week, with extremely limited, unreliable, domiciliary support, and now with virtually no provision for respite care.

Yours etc,

Bill Parker, Llanfair Clydogau, Lampeter.

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