They were supposed to be the jewel in the crown – the embodiment of how the Welsh Government and Ceredigion County Council could deliver a badly needed sea defence project together, protecting Aberaeron. After all, the council’s Penmorfa’s offices overlook the harbour and Cardiff Bay was supplying the bulk of funding.

The finances looked good on paper: The scheme was projected to cost £31.59 million, with Welsh taxpayers coughing up £26.89 million. Ceredigion would kick in £4.74 million.

The timing too seemed not unreasonable: All to be done and dusted by January 2025. And if that went to plan, then onwards and up the coast to Aberystwyth for its new sea defences. That £11 million plan foresees a 100-metre break wall built parallel to the beach to begin in January.

What could possibly go wrong?

Well, right now, Aberaeron sea defences are months behind schedule and millions over budget.

No one doubts the need for the project. Aberaeron has been plagued with flooding, with defences built in 2009 and repaired in 2019. Storms in 2013, 2014 and 2017 forced the closure of Quay Parade by the harbour and overtopping in the harbour and South Beach, which now has new groynes, rock revetments, raised defences along the harbour and glass panels.

The new defences were proposed to protect 124 residential properties and 42 non-residential properties.

Last December, the council said the works wouldn’t be finishing up as planned early in 2025, and instead offered up June as a finish date. June came and went and the council now says the works are almost complete.

The work being undertaken by Bam include the construction of the North Breakwater Walkway, reconstruction of the South Beach rock revetment and installation of the new timber groynes, construction of the new Pwll Cam inner harbour gate abutments, excavation and building of the new South Pier foundation, stone cladding and bi-fold gate installation to new Quay Parade reinforced concrete wall and installation of the main line drainage along Quay Parade.

“However, the project has been faced with some unforeseen ground conditions and design challenges. In particular, deposits of clay along South Beach; stability issues relating to South Pier; unforeseen ground conditions and structures within Pwll Cam and unmapped utility apparatus along Quay Parade. This means that the completion date for the scheme will extend beyond the estimated completion date of January 2025,” the council said last December.

Completion of the scheme is scheduled to occur in stages the council added, and projected target dates for South Beach; Northern Breakwater; Quay Parade and Pwll Cam Terrace Flood Walls, to be completed in Spring 2025 and; South Pier; the River Aeron Flood Wall and the installation and commissioning of the flood gate at Pwll Cam being aimed to be completed around mid-June 2025.

Now, in its latest report to council, Ceredigion says the scheme is “due to be completed imminently”. But the report warned the county could be facing an overspend in the millions on its own part of the scheme.

A recent report for members at the September meeting of Ceredigion County Council’s Thriving Communities Overview and Scrutiny Committee said: “The Aberaeron Coastal Protection scheme remains ongoing with expenditure of £24.6m incurred during 24/25.

“The scheme is showing as £2.5m ahead of its budget profile as at 31/03/25, which is usually a strong indicator that some aspects could be running above budget and/or behind programme.

“During 24/25, additional funding of £2.272m has been set aside to provide potential contingency funding for the scheme.

“This is due to there being a small number of high value compensation events (i.e. contract variances) on the main construction contract, not all of which have reached a full contractual conclusion – therefore there is an element of ongoing commercial sensitivity.

“The overall final financial position, whilst regularly being updated and projected on an estimated basis, is therefore still to be determined.”

At the meeting, members heard the scheme itself was “days away from completion,” but the final financial position on the coastal defences was not available as yet, with sources of additional funding being investigated.

Cllr Marc Davies said it had been “widely speculated” there was “a big overspend” on the Aberaeron coastal scheme, asking if the council would be liable for any such overspend.

Corporate Lead Officer Duncan Hall said that “broadly speaking” the council would be liable, with any overspend coming from reserves, but options to alleviate this were being investigated.

Members were told the final financial position was expected soon, possibly by the end of October.

Speaking after the meeting, Aberaeron county councillor Cllr Elizabeth Evans said: “I think there’s a collective sigh of relief across the town now that the works will finally be completed.

“It’s been a long 18 months, but everyone in Aberaeron understood the need for these works to take place, and their patience was a result of that understanding.

“Aberaeron’s future as a town s now secured for generations to come, and we are most definitely open for business.

“It was a long and complicated project, with so many different elements involved, in different parts of the harbour.

“The works were scheduled to cost about £31m, and there is definitely an overspend, but it’s too early to give a definitive figure, but it will be made known.”

But as the weather turned and flood warnings were issued for the Cardigan Bay over the past two weeks, residents have questioned whether the provisions are fit for purpose.

An Aberystwyth lobster-catcher filmed a storm being “funnelled” into the harbour by the new breakwater, with photos showing the harbour appearing to collect silt from the typical south-north flow of the water.

Concerns were raised that the silt build-up would make the harbour “unnavigable” for vessels.

However Ceredigion County Council, told Cambrian News the new defences are working as they should: “The coastal defence scheme has performed as designed during the recent weather event and indeed has performed well throughout the period of construction.

“Understanding how the scheme performed requires an appreciation that the greatest risk of flooding to Aberaeron from storm events, as is evidenced by historic coastal flood events within the town, is generally from storms which are accompanied by westerly/north-westerly winds and associated sea conditions, as was the case earlier this week.

“The way in which the structures at the entrance work is that they absorb, and therefore reduce the wave energy, reducing waves and overtopping within the harbour, as seen in the video, which not only shows the sea conditions within the harbour entrance, but also the calmer conditions within the harbour itself.”

Borth-born Alun Hubbard, a professor of glaciology at the University of the Arctic in Norway told Cambrian News he didn’t think videos showing silt build-up in Aberaeron harbour was “anything too severe in terms of funnelling the swell and waves into the harbour entrance.

“There may be a very specific wind and swell direction that might have that effect, but that would have come out in the storm surge model simulations, and I suspect that the defensive bar and barrier was designed so that it won't coincide and thereby amplify the funnelling effect with the most severe storms,” he said.