A polling model that proved accurate on a national level in the last election in 2017 has predicted a ‘likely’ Plaid Cymru victory in Ceredigion.

YouGov constituency polling predicts Ben Lake, who was nominated for the MP of the Year award last year for his work at Westminster, to retake the seat, increasing his wafer-thin majority from two years ago.

For Ceredigion, YouGov predicts a ‘likely’ Ben Lake victory for Plaid with the Conservative candidate Amanda Jenner pushing Liberal Democrat Mark Williams close for second.

The model estimates an outcome of Plaid (32 per cent); Lib Dem (22 per cent); Conservative (21 per cent); Labour (13 per cent); Brexit (8 per cent); and Green (3 per cent).

The polling company’s MRP model – which accurately predicted a hung parliament at the 2017 election – shows the Conservative Party gaining an overall majority in the UK.

The model was created from interviews with around 100,000 people on their voting intentions in the 2019 General Election.

The results are analysed at a constituency level using a technique called Multilevel Regression and Post-stratification (MRP) to produce estimates for each of the 650 seats.

Despite the accurate national picture, the MRP in 2017 predicted a likely Liberal Democrat victory in Ceredigion by a similar margin it is predicting for Plaid Cymru this time around. Ben Lake bucked the projection to top the poll by 104 votes.

For more coverage from the election campaign trail, see this week’s Cambrian News, on sale tomorrow