Plaid Cymru remain in the top spot for polling ahead of next year’s Senedd elections, while Reform UK continue to surge and Labour haemorrhage voters.

The Barn Cymru poll conducted by YouGov for ITV Cymru Wales and Cardiff University, has revealed that Labour’s predicted vote share for the Senedd is now at its lowest at 14 per cent – down a further four per cent since the last polling in May.

Plaid Cymru are continuing to lead the polls with 30 per cent (unchanged since May), while Reform UK is on 29 per cent of the current vote share, up four per cent since the last poll in May.

Conservatives are polling at 11 per cent, down two per cent from May, with both the Liberal Democrats and Green Party polling at six per cent.

Dr Jac Larner, from Cardiff University's Welsh Governance Centre, said: “The data reveals telling patterns of voter movement across the political spectrum.”

“Plaid Cymru's support has remained relatively stable over recent months with previous Labour converts sticking with their new choice, suggesting the party has successfully consolidated earlier gains.

“Reform UK's growth is built primarily on Conservative defections, with most of their support coming from previous Tory voters, alongside a smaller but notable number of former Labour supporters.

“Labour, meanwhile, is losing voters on multiple fronts – primarily to Plaid and the Greens, but also to a lesser extent to Reform – indicating broader challenges in holding together their traditional coalition.

“While Reform isn't capturing the bulk of Labour's lost support, even these smaller defections are contributing to Labour's decline.”

From May, there will be 96 Senedd members.

If the poll was translated into seats, Plaid Cymru would have 38 Senedd members.

Despite coming out on top, the number significantly falls short of the 49 Senedd Members needed to form a majority government.