Twelve months ago Right Field reported on the early success of a solar installation. So it seemed like a good time to reflect on a year’s experience. Then events overtook us; firstly the Gorton and Denton by-election, soon to be eclipsed by the war in Iran. But in a strange sort of way they are all related. With much of Ceredigion off grid for mains gas and unprotected by the energy price cap, the consequences of an oil/gas price shock are all too real.

The first oil price shock came in 1973/4 as a retaliation for the Yom Kippur war. The oil exporting Arab countries flexed their muscles, and the impact was profound. Cheap energy could no longer be taken for granted. The nasty reality is that the quest for fossil fuel supplies has driven world politics for over half a century. We may pretend to be interested in human rights, but when push comes to shove it is all about the filthy black gold. Sadly that has put power and wealth into the hands of some very unpleasant people.

Persian Gulf oil and gas are no longer the only source of fossil fuel energy, but with nearly a quarter of world supply transiting the Straights of Hormuz by ship, they remain critical. Iran can still shut that supply off, even with their air force and navy bombed to oblivion, and despite the presence of an international armada of powerful warships (including the Chinese). In the late 1980s The Royal Navy played a critical role in keeping the oil flowing during the Iran/Iraq war. Successive governments have hollowed out the RN, rendering us impotent on the world stage. Stupidity has consequences.

Luckily, as we move into spring, the demand for heating oil will fall away. But for farmers and other rural businesses, volatile and increasing fuel costs make a difficult life much, much harder. Increased inflation is almost certain (as we saw when Putin invaded Ukraine) and will affect us all. Which brings us back to the solar installation.

We all want reliable, cheap and clean energy. Theoretically renewables provide that. Currently they generate about 45% of UK needs. But the generation is variable. No solar at night and nothing at all in what the Germans call a “dunkelflaute”; those periods of dull windless winter weather (think Beast from the East). Biomass may compensate but isn’t as green as it is cracked up to be. Experience with quite a big battery on a dairy farm is that it is really helpful balancing generation and consumption, but the battery capacity required to take the whole population through a two week dunkelflaute is impossibly huge. The gorgeous spring and summer of last year were great for solar generation; the autumn and winter far less so.

Meantime, ground and air source heat pumps are good during the summer, but need a big electrical input during the winter. That will be especially so in a dunkelflaute, when of course renewable generation will be close to zero. Theoretical renewable generation capacity bumps into the reality of high demand; that’s not a problem we can just wish away. Which brings us to Gorton and Denton.

It was a stunning result for the Greens and Zack Polanski. As a gay, Jewish man with a passion for trans rights, he has also attracted socially (very) conservative Muslim voters with a passion for Palestinian rights. If he can hold this coalition together, it’s a marriage made in heaven. Maybe Zack should become Donald Trump’s Middle East Envoy!

The serious point is that our politics is polarising. Quite soon, a populist leader of Left or Right may find themselves in power, or at least influencing a coalition government. For democracy to work, they will need to find common ground, embrace common sense and accept reality. Energy security is critical for prosperity but also health and a decent standard of living. For our politicians it’s a key performance indicator.