In just over three weeks’ time, we will be waking up to a new political landscape in Wales. For the first time in the UK, a major national election will be decided entirely on Proportional Representation (PR). Most people agree that the system chosen by Labour and Plaid Cymru (D’Hondt) is about the worst choice possible. Equally many of us, even from parties that support First Past the Post, worry that with the deep polarisation of UK politics, that system is past it’s sell by date.
PR is largely unfamiliar in UK politics although with Regional MSs, we have had some exposure to it in Wales for some time. It is a system that usually demands coalition government. Arguably that is its greatest weakness; it puts disproportionate power into the hands of quite small parties who may harbour extremist views. Some may see a parallel with Israel, where the Netanyahu government has been sustained by radical groups.
The polls in Wales suggest a two horse race to be the biggest party, between Plaid Cymru and Reform. Both are polling between 25 and 30 per cent. It is important to remember that with a standard circa 50 per cent turnout, that represents active endorsement by no more than 15 per cent of the electorate. It is hardly a mandate for radical change.
Plaid seem to be quietly confident. Some in Reform are “measuring up the curtains”. And Zack Polanski reckons that he and his Green Party are going to be “Kingmaker”. Now, all of them could be right, although a word of warning; Neil Kinnock (1992) and Ed Miliband (2015) were measuring up the curtains for No 10, and the electorate (very wisely) gave them their comeuppance! There is only one poll that counts, as they say.
The party lists of six candidates seem a bit unwieldy, but they do give us a glimpse into their party’s soul. We have in recent days seen Reform candidates fall out with their Party and resign and Plaid Cymru candidates exposed for some extreme views. That includes sharing a Facebook post which called for Rishi Sunak (our first British Asian PM) to be put down!
Racist?; your call! It’s funny how the Conservative Party don’t seem to have a problem having leaders of different ethnicity and religion; somehow we have moved on, and actually embraced diversity and inclusivity rather than virtue signalling about it.
Lloyd Warburton reported in these pages, the misogynistic rant of a Green representative, when challenged over Polanski’s somewhat dubious Harley Street hypnotherapy practice; hocus pocus breast enlargement was apparently a nice earner! One of the only good things about Reform is that they have taken our “fruitcakes”, and frankly they are welcome to them.
There is quite a lot of the traditional Green agenda that Conservatives like me agree with. But I worry that the Greens have changed with some hard left Corbynista style entryism. Study their manifesto and it reveals some near Marxist policy with a wealth tax on land value, and punishment beatings for landlords. Experience of radical rent control approach elsewhere has been negative, with reduced availability and increased rents. Finland is a good example.
But for farmers the threat of Land Value Tax, on top of Labour’s Family Farm Tax (IHT), represents a disaster. This is especially so for the tenanted sector representing over 30 per cent of Welsh farmland. Wise heads in Plaid Cymru understand this. The consequential damage to rural Wales is very clear. They also understand that threats like this add enormously to the stress Welsh farmers are under.
Between now and 7 May I hope that the Greens will clarify their position on this; and perhaps more importantly, that Plaid Cymru will come out unequivocally against taxing business assets in Wales.





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