Plaid Cymru has surged ahead in the latest polling for this year’s Senedd election – opening up a 14 per cent lead over Reform UK while Labour remain languishing on 10 per cent, a figure that will likely see the First Minister fail to gain a seat in May.

The latest figures from the poll carried out by YouGov for ITV Cymru Wales and Cardiff University show Rhun ap Iorwerth's party increasing its projected vote share from 30 per cent to 37 per cent from September 2025, with Reform UK dropping from 29 per cent to 23 per cent.

For the first time ever, the Green Party is polling in third place at 13 per cent, with Labour in fourth – the party’s lowest ever point during polling in Wales elections - at 10 per cent alongside the Conservatives.

With the Senedd expanding from 60 to 96 members at May’s elections, modelling predicts that the vote shares would translate to Plaid Cymru winning 45 seats - four short of an overall majority.

That figure, however, would be well ahead of any other party, with Reform UK projected to take 23 seats, the Greens winning 11 seats, Labour winning eight and the Conservatives on six.

As the Cambrian News reported last month following the release of an earlier poll which showed Labour support dropping to 10 per cent across Wales, First Minister Eluned Morgan now faces an uphill battle to gain a seat in May’s elections for the new-look Senedd.

Eluned Morgan, who has served as First Minister and leader of the Labour Party in Wales since July 2024, has represented the Mid and West Wales region in the Senedd since 2016.

The next election in May 2026 will see an expanded Senedd – with 96 elected members up from the current 60 – along with the creation of 16 super constituencies, with each selecting six Senedd Members.

Baroness Morgan tops the Labour list for candidates for the newly-created Ceredigion Penfro seat, but the two latest polls now both suggest that she may struggle to secure the votes needed to gain one of the six seats available.

The YouGov poll in December predicted that Plaid Cymru will be the largest party in Cardiff Bay after the Senedd elections in May.

That poll revealed that Labour’s predicted vote share for the Senedd had fallen to 10 per cent, while Plaid Cymru continued to lead with 33 per cent (up three per cent), and Reform UK unchanged on 30 per cent.

Labour’s vote fell four per cent since a September poll, amid warnings that support continues to plummet for a party which secured more than 36 per cent of the vote at the last Senedd election in 2021.

The January poll revealed that a bounce back needed for Labour to give a chance to the First Minister of winning a seat has failed to materialise.

Wales will adopt a “closed-list” electoral system from 2026, with the electorate voting for political parties rather than specific candidates on the ballot paper.

The D’Hondt method of selecting candidates means that if the 10 per cent national vote share was reflected across the country – the uniform swing projection for Ceredigion Penfro would see Labour miss out on gaining one of the six seats.

In August, Baroness Morgan admitted her future “wasn’t certain”.

The latest YouGov poll does not have individual seat projections, with more modelled polling from across Wales likely to be undertaken by various polling organisations in the run up to the elections.

For now, the national polling suggest that a two horse race is developing between Plaid Cymru and Reform UK to be the largest party – but the expansion of the Senedd and the proportional representation model used to select candidates mean a majority government in May remains unlikely on the current polling numbers.

But a continued surge from Plaid Cymru and a further drop off in Reform UK numbers ahead of May’s elections could bring a majority Plaid government into the reckoning.

The last poll in December modelled Plaid Cymru to take 39 seats with Reform UK claiming 34.

That meant the largest party would have to look for partners to be able to form a majority working government, with a left-leaning coalition led by Plaid Cymru with Rhun ap Iorwerth as First Minister the most likely outcome if those numbers held.

But that gap has now widened.

Labour currently has 29 seats – one short of a majority – with the polls now suggesting 21 Labour Senedd members will be lost, including several from the current government Cabinet.

Labour would be left with just eight seats, modelling suggests – with Baroness Morgan missing out on a seat in a bloodbath for Labour Senedd Members.

The latest sets of polling have left both Plaid Cymru and Reform UK saying that a change is coming for Wales, after 26 years of continual Labour rule since the creation of the-then Welsh Assembly in 1999.

Plaid Cymru said the latest poll was “explosive” and “confirmed that this May’s Senedd election is a two-horse race between Plaid Cymru and Reform.”

“More and more people are realising they face a choice between two very different futures, and are choosing to back Plaid Cymru’s positive vision for Wales,” the party said.

“That’s because we are the only party that will always stand up for Wales, with new leadership and serious plans to fix our NHS and help people with the cost-of-living crisis.

“Reform is focused on chasing headlines and getting Nigel Farage closer to Number 10 - not on Wales’s future.

“There is real momentum behind Plaid Cymru, but we are taking nothing for granted.

“After decades in charge, Labour is finished, but the future of Wales is still to be written.

The leader of Wales Green Party, Anthony Slaughter, said the poll was “incredibly exciting”.

“It's very encouraging,” he added.

“It reflects what we are hearing on the doorstep and it reflects the enthusiasm building around our campaign; offering hope to politics.”

Reform said that that the poll was a “snapshot in time” and were “confident on closing the gap” to Plaid ahead of May.

Transport Secretary Ken Skates said “it’s not a good poll” for Labour but added that “we fight strongest when our backs are against the wall.”

Dr Jac Larner, from Cardiff University's Welsh Governance Centre, said: "This poll shows a stark contrast to previous polling, with a substantial 14-point gap between Plaid Cymru and Reform UK in Senedd voting intention—a significant shift from when the two parties appeared neck and neck.

“While any single poll should come with a health warning and this may be something of an outlier, it continues broader trends we're seeing in Welsh polling, where Plaid Cymru have enjoyed a modest boost, and trends in England, where Reform support appears to be plateauing while the Greens have surged.

“Two patterns are particularly noteworthy.

“First, the gains for both the Greens and Plaid Cymru appear to be drawing from voters who were previously undecided, rather than coming from other parties.

“Second, Plaid Cymru seem to be consolidating their position as the party best placed to challenge Reform UK —57 per cent of respondents in our sample identified them as such."