IF at all possible, I try to steer well clear of weather forecasting.

In Wales it has always been a bit hit and miss and if the experts can get it wrong so often, why should I imagine I can do any better?

Often the safest bet on any exposed western seaboard is to wait for morning and take it from there.

In October we had high pressure, blue skies, some sun and even the faintest touch of frost on a very rare occasion.

Thinking ahead, I might have predicted a cold spell before Christmas, but November was a total contrast and December has been much the same, generally overcast, un-seasonally warm and wet, wet, wet.

We have to expect some stormy, wet weather, but the last couple of months might be described as particularly depressing if not (more than a bit) worrying. The ground has been super-saturated for weeks on end and water has been pouring out of places where it had never appeared before.

With the Paris summit on climate change long gone, and commitments — if not signed then promises made, the big question has to be: Is what we are experiencing now just the vagaries of our UK weather or is it climate change making itself felt already?See this week's south editions for the full story, in shops now or online by clicking the Digital Editions tab at the top of the page